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## CURRENTLY DISPLAYING:

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## Financial stability and Basel II

### Annals of Finance (2007-01-01) 3: 107-130 , January 01, 2007

The Basel II Advanced Internal Ratings (AIRB) approach is compared to capital requirements set using an equilibrium structural credit risk model. Analysis shows the AIRB approach undercapitalizes credit risk relative to regulatory targets and allows wide variation in capital requirements for a given exposure owing to ambiguity in the definitions of loss given default and exposure at default. In contrast, the Foundation Internal Ratings Based (FIRB) approach may over-capitalize credit risk relative to supervisory objectives. It is unclear how Basel II will buttress financial sector stability as it specifies the weakest regulatory capital standard for large complex AIRB banks.

## Conditional Volatility of Equity Real Estate Investment Trust Returns: A Pre- and Post-1993 Comparison

### The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics (2009-02-01) 38: 137-154 , February 01, 2009

We examine the dynamic behavior of Equity Real Estate Investment Trust (EREIT) volatility in a GARCH context 1972–2006 using monthly EREIT returns, and comparing volatility performance for “early” Equity REITs 1972–1992 with that of “modern” EREITs 1993–2006. Consistent with findings for conventional firms, we find that EREIT conditional volatility is time-varying, persistent, and predictable. There is a positive relationship between expected return and expected risk in EREIT stocks pre-1993, but the relationship disappears after 1993. We find no evidence that negative shocks affect EREIT volatility differently from positive ones in either time period. Different from reported results for conventional firms, we find that changes in the conditional volatility of fundamental macroeconomic variables have strong explanatory value for future changes in EREIT volatility. Finally, comparing EREIT volatility performance with volatility in the Russell 2000 Index, a proxy for small stocks, we find that EREIT volatility behaves differently from that of small stocks in many respects, indicating that risks in the small stock index cannot effectively proxy for risks in the EREIT market.

## Market crashes, speculation and learning in financial markets

### Economic Theory (2009-05-01) 39: 217-229 , May 01, 2009

A natural conjecture is that if agents’ beliefs are almost correct then equilibrium prices should be close to rational expectations prices. Sandroni (J Econ Theory 82:1–18, 1998) gives a counterexample in an economy with sunspots and complete markets. We extend Sandroni’s result by showing that the conjecture is generically true for economies with complete markets. We consider a standard General Equilibrium model with large but finite horizon and complete markets. We show that, for almost every such economy, if conditional beliefs eventually become correct along a path of events then equilibrium prices of assets traded along this path converge to rational expectations equilibria in the sup-norm. Moreover, we establish that, generically, there exist along any such path local diffeomorphisms between individual beliefs and equilibrium prices.

## Imports, Exports, Dollar Exposures, and Stock Returns

### Open Economies Review (2015-11-01) 26: 1059-1079 , November 01, 2015

Economic theory suggests that the magnitude and direction of a firm’s currency risk exposure depends crucially on its fundamental involvement in international trade. For U.S. industries, we find that the stock performance of import-oriented companies moves positively with the performance of the dollar, but the stock performance of export-oriented companies tends to move against the dollar. Based on this finding, we use the imports and exports information to enhance the identification of the dollar risk exposure for different industries, and analyze how each industry’s expected stock return varies with its dollar risk exposure. We identify a strongly negative risk premium for bearing positive exposures to the dollar. On average, import-oriented companies generate lower expected stock returns.

## Systematic and Liquidity Risk in Subprime-Mortgage Backed Securities

### Open Economies Review (2013-02-01) 24: 5-32 , February 01, 2013

The misevaluation of risk in securitized financial products is central to understanding the Financial Crisis of 2007–2008. This paper characterizes the evolution of factors affecting collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) based on subprime mortgages. A key feature of subprime-mortgage backed indices is that they are distinct in their vintage of issuance. Using a latent factor framework that incorporates this vintage effect, we show the increasing importance of a common factor on more senior tranches during the crisis. We examine this common factor and its relationship with spreads. We estimate the effects of the financial crisis on the common factor.

## Does Overconfidence Bias Explain Volatility During the Global Financial Crisis?

### Transition Studies Review (2013-02-01) 19: 291-312 , February 01, 2013

This paper explores the problem of the current global financial crisis, using a behavioral perspective. Particularly, the main objective of this paper is to test whether overconfidence bias can explain excessive volatility witnessed during global financial crisis in developed and emerging equity markets. Empirical results of EGARCH estimated models show an asymmetric effect of volatility for all equity market indexes. The relation between excessive trading volume of overconfident investors and excessive prices volatility is then estimated. The results indicate that conditional volatility is positively related to trading volume caused by overconfidence bias. This finding provides strong statistical support to the presence of overconfidence bias among investors in developed and emerging stocks markets. This cognitive bias contributes to the exceptional financial instability that erupted in 2008. However, during the subprime financial crisis period overconfidence bias cannot explain volatility because of the loss of confidence by investors in financial markets.

## On the positive fundamental value of money with short-sale constraints

### Annals of Finance (2007-10-01) 3: 455-469 , October 01, 2007

This paper is concerned with the pricing of money in a framework with restrictions on trading, under an extension of the standard-asset pricing theory that recognizes both tangible and intangible returns. It is argued that the underlying motivations for demanding money give content to its fundamental value and the bubble component. This approach is illustrated by analyzing the case where no short-sales are allowed, as two examples from the literature are made used to assert that money is a pure pricing bubble. Owing to this setup exhibits technically incomplete financial markets, the fundamental value of money is not uniquely defined over the set of generalized state-price processes. Then, these examples are shown to comprise an extreme case, as money is a pure store of value for the state-prices chosen (i.e., it is a pricing bubble). Instead, the fundamental value of money can be positive for other state-prices, representing the role of money in the trading process. Therefore, money should not be considered the equivalent of a pure pricing bubble.

## Equilibrium-based volatility models of the market portfolio rate of return (peacock tails or stotting gazelles)

### Annals of Operations Research (2015-09-02): 1-26 , September 02, 2015

We introduce a theoretical and empirical method of studying equilibrium-consistent volatility models. We implement it with the market portfolio’s return, which is central to financial risk management. Within an equilibrium framework, we study two families of such models. One is deterministic volatility, represented by current popular models. The other is in the “constant elasticity of variance” family, in which we propose new models. Theoretically, we show that, together with constant expected returns, the latter family tends to have better ability to forecast. Empirically, our proposed models, while as easy to implement as the popular ones, outperform them in three out-of-sample forecast evaluations of different time periods, by standard predictability criteria. This is true particularly during high-volatility periods, whether the market rises or falls.

## Evidence on Hedging Effectiveness in Indian Derivatives Market

### Asia-Pacific Financial Markets (2014-05-01) 21: 121-131 , May 01, 2014

The hedging effectiveness for bank futures and CNX nifty are evaluated in this study. The study is based on 9,569 observations of the daily data for these index futures. For evaluation ordinary least square, co-integrated ordinary least square, generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroscedasticity (1, 1), and constant correlation generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroscedasticity (1, 1) hedging methods are estimated and compared. Result shows that constant correlation generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroscedasticity (1, 1) is an efficient hedging method that maximizes investors’ utility function considering transaction costs. Therefore, investors can rely on this constant correlation generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroscedasticity (1, 1) hedging method.

## Monetary policy and heterogeneous expectations

### Economic Theory (2011-06-01) 47: 365-393 , June 01, 2011

This paper studies the implications for monetary policy of heterogeneous expectations in a New Keynesian model. The assumption of rational expectations is replaced with parsimonious forecasting models where agents select between predictors that are underparameterized. In a *Misspecification Equilibrium* agents only select the best-performing statistical models. We demonstrate that, even when monetary policy rules satisfy the Taylor principle by adjusting nominal interest rates more than one for one with inflation, there may exist equilibria with Intrinsic Heterogeneity. Under certain conditions, there may exist multiple misspecification equilibria. We show that these findings have important implications for business cycle dynamics and for the design of monetary policy.