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## Some fundamental properties of governmental expenditure patterns — Theory and evidence based on military expenditures

### The Journal of Technology Transfer (1981-03-01) 5: 61-76 , March 01, 1981

This paper shows that governmental defense expenditure patterns can be accurately modeled by the use of graph curves. This modeling is applicable to both individual weapon systems and entire military treasury code cost categories. The application of this model to the complete Air Force expenditure process suggests a fundamental theory of expenditures which should allow the forecasting of aggregate military defense expenditures in the presence of very sparse data.

## Poland's economic crisis at its peak?

### Economic Bulletin (1981-07-01) 18: 5-7 , July 01, 1981

## A comparison of estimators of output multipliers from incomplete input-output data

### The Annals of Regional Science (1981-07-01) 15: 39-54 , July 01, 1981

This paper presents derivations and empirical tests of three formulas for estimating output multipliers with only limited input-output type data. The first formula assumes only knowledge of the proportion of the value of output of the firm or industry in question which is respent within the region, as well as an estimate of the average of this value over all industries. The second formula assumes this value as well as the relative values of the I-O “row totals.” The third equation assumes data equivalent to a column in the I-O matrix is known for the specific firm or industry in question. The data requirements for all three formulas are modest but are more for (2) than for (1) and are more for (3) than for (2). All three formulas are shown to be quite reliable but the third gives especially close estimates of the actual multipliers for the several models tested. It is concluded that fairly rough estimates of the average interindustry proportion can be safely used but it is important to obtain the firm or industry expenditure (direct effects) data as accurately as possible.

## Simplified transport models based on traffic counts

### Transportation (1981-09-01) 10: 257-278 , September 01, 1981

Having accepted the need for the development of simpler and less cumbersome transport demand models, the paper concentrates on one possible line for simplification: estimation of trip matrices from link volume counts. Traffic counts are particularly attractive as a data basis for modelling because of their availability, low cost and nondisruptive character. It is first established that in normal conditions it may be possible to find more than one trip matrix which, when loaded onto a network, reproduces the observed link volumes. The paper then identifies three approaches to reduce this underspecification problem and produce a unique trip matrix consistent with the counts. The first approach consists of assuming that trip-making behaviour can be explained by a gravity model whose parameters can be calibrated from the traffic counts. Several forms of this gravity model have been put forward and they are discussed in Section 3. The second approach uses mathematical programming techniques associated to equilibrium assignment problems to estimate a trip matrix in congested areas. This method can also be supplemented by a special distribution model developed for small areas. The third approach relies on entropy and information theory considerations to estimate the most likely trip matrix consistent with the observed flows. A particular feature of this group is that they can include prior, perhaps outdated, information about the matrix.

These three approaches are then compared and their likely areas for application identified. Problems for further research are discussed and finally an assessment is made of the possible role of these models vis-a-vis recent developments in transport planning.

## Covered arbitrage margin and transaction costs

### Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv (1981-06-01) 117: 262-275 , June 01, 1981

### Zusammenfassung

Gedeckte Arbitragemarge und Transaktionskosten. — Dieser Aufsatz untersucht die Rolle der Transaktionskosten bei der ErklÄrung der beobachteten Abweichungen von der gedeckten ZinsparitÄt zwischen den amerika-nischen und britischen Schatzwechseln im Rahmen des gegenwÄrtigen Systems be-grenzt floatender Wechselkurse. Nach einer kritischen Betrachtung der von Frenkel und Levich erarbeiteten Methode, die relevanten Transaktionskosten zu schÄtzen, wird eine alternative Methode vorgeschlagen, wobei deren Hinweis aufgenommen wird, die Informationen zu nutzen, die sich aus den Abweichungen von der Dreiecks-oder geographischen Wechselkursarbitrage ergeben. Die so ermittelten SchÄtzungen gehen in eine Regressionsanalyse ein, aus der sich ergibt, da\ die Transaktionskosten eine signifikante Auswirkung auf die gedeckte Arbitragemarge haben, obwohl sie deren Umfang in dem untersuchten Fall nicht voll erklÄren.